Statistics

Since becoming personally involved in elections, I’ve found myself watching televised election coverage on Election Night.  This year, that was at Ethel’s Lounge in Waterloo with three of our 5 Waterloo Region Greens Candidates and WRGreens volunteers and supporters.

Each broadcaster concentrates on the ridings their partisan experts consider important,  instead of showing the riding results equally, so it’s hit or miss for all the rest.  We chose to watch TVO’s coverage that night at Ethel’s, as TVO was the only MSM broadcaster to include a Green leaning commentator.

At the end of the day, it’s hard to get the big picture.  So for my own interest, I decided to check out Elections Ontario (unofficial results) to get an idea how our Green Candidates did overall. Although I did this for my own interest, Bob pointed out this might be of interest to others, so here it is.Mike Schreiner Guelph 29,082 45.04% | Bonnie North Barrie—Innisfil 3,182 7.19% | Robert Kiley Kingston and the Islands 3,504 6.48% | Stephen Leahy Ajax 1,224 2.51% | Justin Tilson Algoma—Manitoulin 989 3.60% | Stephanie Nicole Duncan Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill 1,195 2.66% | Keenan Aylwin Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte 5,354 11.72% | Mark Daye Bay of Quinte 1,730 3.43% | Debra Scott Beaches—East York 2,128 4.26% | Laila Zarrabi Yan Brampton Centre 1,053 3.13% | Raquel Fronte Brampton East 500 1.33% | Pauline Thornham Brampton North 1,366 3.45% | Lindsay Falt Brampton South 1,472 3.86% | Julie Guillemet-Ackerman Brampton West 999 2.63% | Ken Burns Brantford—Brant 2,707 4.72% | Don Marshall Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound 2,922 5.95% | Vince Fiorito Burlington 2,828 4.48% | Michele Braniff Cambridge 3,018 6.27% | Gordon Kubanek Carleton 1,985 3.95% | Mark Vercouteren Chatham-Kent—Leamington 1,636 3.53% | Kirsten Snider Davenport 1,624 3.55% | Mark Wong Don Valley East 917 2.53% | Janelle Yanishewski Don Valley North 1,015 2.52% | Morgan Bailey Don Valley West 1,268 2.77% | Eryn Sylvester Mississauga—Malton 674 1.79% | Abhijeet Manay Mississauga—Streetsville 1,349 2.81% | Sarah Hutchinson Mushkegowuk—James Bay 164 1.78% | James O’Grady Nepean 2,679 5.06% | Michelle Bourdeau Newmarket—Aurora 1,788 3.63% | Joe Dias Niagara Centre 1,788 3.63% | Karen Fraser Niagara Falls 2,057 3.46% | Jessica Tillmanns Niagara West 2,578 5.58% | Bill Crumplin Nickel Belt 1,137 3.12% | Kris Rivard Nipissing 997 2.83% | Jeff Wheeldon Northumberland—Peterborough South 2,727 4.52% | Emily DeSousa Oakville 1,976 3.51% | Marianne Workman Oakville North—Burlington 2,045 3.69% | Nicholas Lapierre Orléans 1,603 2.51% | Deborah Ellis Oshawa 1,957 3.61% | Cherie Wong Ottawa Centre 2,266 3.52% | Les Schram Ottawa South 1,618 3.09% | Patrick Freel Ottawa West—Nepean 1,937 3.83% | Sheilagh McLean Ottawa—Vanier 1,951 4.07% | Al De Jong Oxford 2,247 4.30% | Halyna Zalucky Parkdale—High Park 2,544 4.66% | Matt Richter Parry Sound—Muskoka 9,438 20.02% | Lisa Olsen Perth—Wellington 2,746 5.86% | Gianne Broughton Peterborough—Kawartha 2,055 3.36%Laura Campbell Dufferin—Caledon 7,011 12.53% | Michelle Corbett Durham 2,359 3.88% | Reuben DeBoer Eglinton—Lawrence 1,230 2.43% | Bronagh Morgan Elgin—Middlesex—London 2,049 3.88% | Nancy Pancheshan Essex 1,853 3.45% | Shawn Rizvi Etobicoke Centre 1,329 2.32% | Nancy Ghuman Etobicoke North 991 2.73% | Chris Caldwell Etobicoke—Lakeshore 2,101 3.63% | Janet Errygers Flamborough—Glanbrook 2,307 4.47% | Daniel Reid Glengarry—Prescott—Russell 1,429 2.93% | Anne Faulkner Haldimand—Norfolk 2,095 4.14% | Lynn Therien Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock 2,584 4.50% | Jason Lopez Hamilton Centre 2,102 5.75% | Brian Munroe Hamilton East—Stoney Creek 1,873 4.26% | David Urquhart Hamilton Mountain 2,300 5.14% | Peter Ormond Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas 2,302 4.16% | Sari Watson Hastings—Lennox and Addington 1,910 4.24% | Kirsten Bennett Humber River—Black Creek 485 1.57% | Nicholas Wendler Huron—Bruce 1,804 3.42% | Andrew West Kanata—Carleton 2,827 5.33% | Adam Narraway Pickering—Uxbridge 2,105 3.96% | Anna Dolan Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke 1,436 2.98% | Walter Bauer Richmond Hill 1,248 2.88% | Kevin Shaw Sarnia—Lambton 1,856 3.65% | Kara Flannigan Sault Ste. Marie 1,044 3.25% | Sanjin Zeco Scarborough Centre 902 2.31% | Nicole Peltier Scarborough North 543 1.62% | David Del Grande Scarborough Southwest 1,144 2.64% | Lydia West Scarborough—Agincourt 635 1.72% | Linda Rice Scarborough—Guildwood 877 2.44% | Priyan De Silva Scarborough—Rouge Park 1,014 2.41% | Valerie Powell Simcoe North 3,615 6.65% | Jesseca Perry Simcoe—Grey 4,192 6.88% | Rita Bilerman Spadina—Fort York 1,817 3.66% | Colin Ryrie St. Catharines 1,923 3.72% | Elaine Kennedy Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry 1,596 3.67% | David Robinson Sudbury 1,504 4.16% | Rachel Dokhoian Thornhill 1,043 2.21% | John Northey Thunder Bay—Atikokan 880 2.71% | Amanda Moddejonge Thunder Bay—Superior North 838 2.79%Ember McKillop Kenora—Rainy River 721 3.60% | Christine Penner Polle Kiiwetinoong 406 6.28% | Greg Locke King—Vaughan 1,754 3.41% | Stacey Danckert Kitchener Centre 3,23 David Weber Kitchener South—Hespeler 3,198 7.53% | Bob Jonkman Kitchener—Conestoga 2,793 6.51% | Anthony Li Lambton—Kent—Middlesex 1,655 3.29% | Anita Payne Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston 2,410 4.79% | Derek Morley Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes 2,347 4.80% | Carol Dyck London North Centre 2,493 4.61% | Pamela Reid London West 2,211 3.75% | Lisa Carriere London—Fanshawe 2,050 4.52% | Jose Etcheverry Markham—Stouffville 2,153 4.00% | Caryn Bergmann Markham—Thornhill 859 2.29% | Deborah Moolman Markham—Unionville 993 2.12% | Eleanor Hayward Milton 2,208 5.04% | Noah Gould Mississauga Centre 1,149 2.63% | Basia Krzyzanowski Mississauga East—Cooksville 1,498 3.45% | Libby Yuill Mississauga—Erin Mills 1,312 2.74% | Lloyd Jones Mississauga—Lakeshore 1,572 2.95% | Casey Lalonde Timiskaming—Cochrane 723 2.63% | Lucas Schinbeckler Timmins 273 1.75% | Adam Sommerfeld Toronto Centre 1,377 3.12% | Andrew Trotter Toronto—Danforth 2,248 4.38% | Teresa Pun Toronto—St. Paul's 1,690 3.23% | Tim Grant University—Rosedale 2,652 5.37% | Michael DiPasquale Vaughan—Woodbridge 972 2.26% | Zdravko Gunjevic Waterloo 2,613 4.83% | Dave Rodgers Wellington—Halton Hills 5,066 8.64% | Stacey Leadbetter Whitby 1,958 3.42% | Randi Ramdeen Willowdale 932 2.30% | Krysta Glovasky-Ridsdale Windsor West 1,393 3.58% | Henry Oulevey Windsor—Tecumseh 1,907 4.42% | Roma Lyon York Centre 843 2.29% | Grad Murray York South—Weston 942 2.53% | Alexandra Zalucky York—Simcoe 2,195 4.82%(note: the above all candidates image is actually in three pieces, part 1 is the first 6 rows, part 2 the next 5 rows, and part 3 the last 5 rows. Click on the section you want to see the segment at full size.)

All five of our Waterloo Region Greens candidates did very well overall.

Kitchener South—Hespeler candidate David Weber‘s 7.53 riding vote percentage was the 6th highest in Ontario (up from 7th in 2014).  Kitchener Centre‘s candidate Stacey Danckert ranked 9th with 6.84%, Kitchener—Conestoga candidate Bob Jonkman ranked 11th with 6.51%, Cambridge candidate Michele Braniff ranked 14th with 6.27%, and first time candidate Zdravko Gunjevic ranked 24th with 4.83% in Waterloo.

And while I know from personal experience how lucky Waterloo Region has been to have such an excellent roster of WRGreens candidates, I have met enough other Green Party Candidates to know this isn’t really unusual.  Frankly, I am continually stunned by the calibre of Green Party Candidates in general.  Although the Green Party has far and away the best policy of any of the top four parties, putting your hat in the ring requires a great deal of time, money and effort for any candidate.  It’s a big personal investment no matter which party a candidate is running for, and Greens are faced with additional handicaps:

  • an electoral system that discriminates egregiously against the Greens,
  • unrelenting propaganda that insists majority government is a good thing,
  • the exclusion of the Green Party Leader in televised Leaders Debates
  • the MSM agenda to keep us perpetually cycling between red and blue parties,
  • the never ending push for strategic voting,
  • the catch 22 perception that no seats in the legislature means Greens are unelectable, and
  • the low probability of winning, even when you are the best candidate in your riding.

Green Candidates are well aware of how little chance they have of being elected, but in spite of everything, excellent Green Party Candidates keep stepping up.

Working together is the WRGreens superpower.

Stacey Danckert brought us all together under the unofficial WRGreens umbrella during the 2015 federal election, and our regional cooperation is paying off.  Cooperating, sharing our experience and resources has been incredibly helpful for us here in Waterloo Region.  And not just during elections.  We’ve been actively working to raise the Green profile between elections, by hosting information tables at local summer festivals where we can, hosting our own events and participating in others as appropriate, and building our online presence on the WRGreens blog.   We’re always learning, and we’ll do it even better next time.  Especially now that Mike Schreiner has won that so important first seat.

Strategic Voting is a only a good strategy for the candidate who gets the vote we would rather cast elsewhere.

I know how hard it can be to stay positive, and to keep focus on the campaign.  But after media suppression, I think our worst threat is falling prey to propaganda.

The strategic voting narrative continues to be powerful, and it is always the worst when it strikes from within.

In many ways I think this is especially difficult for Greens, because Greens are the unparty party, the party that applauds other parties when they appropriate our ideas, even when implemented badly, because it’s a start.

The stakes are so high that sometimes a candidate falls victim to strategic voting propaganda, and suggests their supporters vote instead for a competitor who might win against a greater evil. This really isn’t surprising in a party that understands the importance of working together for the common good.  Green Candidates aren’t professional politicians, they’re people from all walks of life who get involved because they understand our future is at stake and change is no longer optional. They’re in this because serious issues that need to be addressed, not for the greater glory of the party.

One of the reasons strategic voting is wrong is that it is always built on the faulty premise that old statistics— whether gleaned from past elections or recent opinion polls— can accurately predict who might win.  If this were true, there would be no need for the trouble and expense of elections.

In this campaign, I was particularly unhappy to see a terrible strategic voting meme initiated by Meanwhile In Canada.  The post in question actually told voters to vote NDP except in 5 cases, where it said voters should vote Green because Green candidates could win in those 5 ridings. Some Green folk helped spread this meme thinking it might help change the perception that Green candidates couldn’t win.

I don’t know what exactly that prediction was based on, but two of the candidates who went on to rank in the top 5 percentages in their ridings were excluded from the 5 supposedly winnable ridings.  We will never know how many more votes those candidates (or all the Green candidates MiC strategically dismissed) might have won if that social media maven hadn’t been telling voters to vote against Greens in the last week of the campaign.

Although there are no scientific studies of which I am aware, I think Strategic Voting is the most powerful vote suppression tool going.  When people are convinced their vote won’t have any effect, or worse, that it will help elect the boogeyman provided by our FPTP system, many feel the only responsible choice is not voting.

We only get one vote.  That’s not a vote for a party.  It’s not a vote for a party leader.  It’s a vote for our local representative. I have to wonder how much better Greens would do in elections if they didn’t have to spend half the election explaining what’s wrong with Strategic Voting.

Since I’m sharing rankings, here are the GPO Top 5:

These 5 candidates are leading the way forward. Onward!

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Congratulations to the WRGreens Candidates!

Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner made history last night in Guelph, winning the first Green Party seat in Ontario

We’re all very excited that Mike Schreiner won last night.  Finally a Green has broken through in Ontario.

The Green Party
Growing a party
2015 Waterloo candidate Richard Walsh joined the party.
Candidates Bob Jonkman (Kitchener—Conestoga) and Zdravko Gunjevic (Waterloo)

What I have to say here is how proud I am of the hard work and dedication put in by all the WRGreens Candidates and volunteers.  Our work certainly paid off in the votes our candidates earned.

First time candidate Zdravko Gunjevic earned a whopping 4.83% of the vote in Waterloo.

Bob Jonkman won 6.51% of the vote in Kitchener—Conestoga.

Candidate David Weber (Kitchener South—Hespeler) and his team

David Weber won 7.35% of the vote in Kitchener South—Hespeler.

Cambridge Candidate Michele Braniff (at the TIE debate) and Kitchener Centre Candidate Stacey Danckert (at the African-Canadian Debate) were in Guelph to support Mike Schreiner representing the WRGreens.

Michele Braniff won 6.27% of the vote in Cambridge.

Stacey Danckert won 6.84% of the vote in her new riding, Kitchener Centre.

At its peak, I couldn’t get all the Green Partiers in a single photograph!

Well done WRGreens!

But this is just the beginning of our story.  Onward!

 

 

WRGreens Victory Party Tonight! #LetsMakeHistory

7:00 pm at Ethel’s Lounge, Waterloo

Join us to celebrate our awesome Waterloo Region Greens 2018 Ontario Election campaign.  I don’t think any other party cooperates across the region the way we do, and that is an awesome thing.

Tonight we’ll find out Ontario— and Waterloo Region— is ready to make history sending Green MPP(s) to Queen’s Park!

[I think we’re all ready for People Powered Change]#PeoplePoweredChange After the hard work of campaigning, WRGreens candidates, volunteers, friends & families are invited to celebrate together at the WRGreens' 2018 Victory Party We will gather in the back room at Ethel's Lounge where we can spend the evening among friends and watch the election coverage together. Hope to see you there! #LetsMakeHistory 7:00pm - 11pm 114 King St N, Waterloo, Ontario

Today is Election Day! #LetsMakeHistory

Bob Jonkman just before casting his ballot at the Kitchener-Conestoga Returning Office (May 28, 2018)

 

I found the Elections Ontario website hard to navigate; this is the page for Kitchener—Conestoga; if you are having trouble finding your polling station it may be easiest to just call the returning office at (866) 850-8977.  Or drop by if you’re in the neighborhood; our Returning office is located 1187 Fischer Hallman Road, Kitchener, N2E 4H9 Map

If you make a mistake

If you have made a mistake and marked your ballot incorrectly, you may return the incorrectly marked ballot to the election official. The election official will cancel the ballot and reissue you a new ballot. The election official will then write “cancelled” on the back of the ballot. Cancelled ballots are not placed in the ballot box, and are not part of the official results.

Elections Ontario: Different Ways to Mark Your Ballot

Please encourage anyone you know to vote today.  (No matter who they want to vote for.)

We’ve been told over and over that we need majority government, as if majority government has ever been good for us.  With our unfair First Past The Post voting system, “majority government” enjoy majority power even though they’ve earned their majority with only a minority of votes.  What I’ve seen is that such phony majority governments listen to citizens the least.  With all the power they don’t ask us, they tell us.

Instead of highlighting the candidate we can actually vote for, the main stream media has focused almost entirely on the party leaders.  All too often Canadian voters don’t even know much if anything about the local candidate we can actually vote for– the candidate who is supposed to represent our interests in the legislature.  For the big three, the Liberal, PC and NDP parties that almost makes sense, because the local candidates we elect are representing the party’s agenda to us.  When it comes time for MPPs to vote on the policy & laws made in the Legislative Assembly of Ontario, those MPPs are almost always obliged to vote the way their party dictates.

But the Green Party does politics differently.  The way I think representative democracy is supposed to work.  Green MPPs votes are never whipped; in fact, Green MPPs are obliged to consider the wishes of their constituents– that is to say the voters whose votes elected them– ahead of the wishes of the party.

Until just before the Ontario Election was called, Kitchener—Conestoga was considered a “safe seat” for respected incumbent PC MPP Michael Harris.  But the new administration thought it best to replace him with the son of a previous Premier more apt to support the new leadership. After Mike Harris Jr failed to win the Waterloo nomination, it might have seemed like a good idea to install him in a riding he might win through name confusion.

The traditional next choice for this riding would be the Liberal Candidate, even though he, too, tried and failed to win his party’s nomination in another riding before being installed here.   But in the face of Premier Wynne’s concession, suddenly that is no longer a shoe in.

It’s looking more and more like an NDP Government will be formed out of this mess.  But even there, Kitchener—Conestoga wasn’t the Candidate’s first choice, as she doesn’t actually live in the riding any more.  What concerns me more is that she’s introduced herself at debates as Andrea Horwath’s representative.  It’s hard to serve two masters.

Voters inclined to vote conservative or liberal tend not to choose NDP for their second choice.  If they’re aware of the fiscally responsible and progressively sound Green Party policies, they may well consider voting for the Green Party Candidate.  Especially if they’ve seen or heard Bob at any of the debates.

Greens have been talking about making history in this election by electing the first Green Ontario MPP by sending GPO leader Mike Schreiner to represent the citizens of Guelph in Queen’s Park.  But with red and blue parties in disarray, there is a much greater chance we will will send many more Green MPPs to the legislature along with Mike Schreiner.  Kitchener Centre’s Stacey Danckert is a real contender.  And here in  the riding of Kitchener—Conestoga, it seems to me that Bob Jonkman has the best shot any Green has ever had at winning this election contest.

We’ll just have to wait and see.

We’ve just posted the entire New Hamburg Board of Trade Debate to YouTube:

We hope you’ll join us at the Waterloo Region Greens Victory Party at Ethel’s Lounge this evening.

 

Choose the candidate who will best represent you

Our ad in Saturday’s Local Section of The Record (June 2, 2018)

In spite of a groundswell of public opinion, spurred by the non-partisan fairdebates.ca petition, the TV broadcasting Consortium refused to allow Green Party of Ontario Leader Mike Schreiner into the televised Ontario Leader Debates.

Both Liberal Leader Premier Kathleen Wynne and NDP Leader Andrea Horwath expressed public support for Mike’s inclusion.  The double barrelled argument was that not only does the Green Party of Ontario field candidates in every riding across the province, the GPO exceeded the 2% Elections Ontario threshold (earning nearly 5% of the vote).

Alas, the unaccountable Broadcast Consortium refused to bow to public opinion and excluded him anyway.  Silent Protestors gathered outside the CityTV studios to protest the first Leaders Debate excluding Mike Schreiner, but after a few quick glimpses from the early live feed, efforts to keep Green protes         news camera folk

Locally CBCKW rigorously supported the Consortium’s GPO censorship by refusing to allow local Green candidates to be included in its riding specific local broadcast, unless one of the “big 3” candidates declined to attend. Stacey was invited to the Kitchener Centre broadcast, but was explicitly informed she had only been included because they only had 3 microphones, and PC candidate Mary Henein Thorn declined.  Zdravko was excluded on Tuesday, Bob on Wednesday.  Mr Norris neglected to inform his listeners he was excluding our candidates, so at the CNIB’s ReVision All Candidate’s Meeting, someone asked why Bob decided not to appear on CBC.  It’s bad enough excluding us, but making it look as though some of our candidates chose not to show up is much worse.

But we have received some coverage.  The Toronto Star Editorial Board endorsed Mike Schreiner for Guelph MPP. and hosted a video Q&A with the Green Party Leader.

The Agenda has given the GPO some excellent coverage as well, inviting our shadow cabinet members to participate, as well as analyzing the GPO Platform.

May 23, 2018
Finding a Home in Ontario

May 25
Analyzing The Green Party Platform

May 25
The Green Party Leader

The biggest problem faced by Greens isn’t coming up with great policy, it’s getting it out there so people know about it.  That is why this is such an important issue.

In spite of everything, I am convinced Ontario is going to join the Green Wave and send Mike Schreiner along with a healthy complement of Green MPPs to Queen’s Park.  Like an opinion poll, that’s just a guess, but what I’m seeing and hearing suggests this will come to pass.  Even in our Kitchener-Conestoga riding, a traditional Conservative stronghold, the turmoil within the PC Party could very well provide an opportunity in what should have been a safe seat.  With the added bonus of the Liberal leader’s concession, our chances are even better.

What we do know for sure is that the addition of even a single Green voice in the legislature will be a game changer.  And that can only be a good thing; not just for Greens, but for Ontarians.  More and more people are starting to realize there is another choice.  It really is time to start doing politics differently.  If you haven’t yet voted, tomorrow ~ June 7th, 2018 ~ is the day.

As GPO candidate Andrew West says, |
“If everyone…who ever thought about voting Green DID vote Green. we would win!”
~ @greenAndrewWest

If you need help getting to the polls, give us a call at 226-476-4529 and we’ll do our best to accommodate you.

[Reprinted from the WRGreens Blog]

Infiltrate The Debate: 6pm Sun 27 May 2018 at the @WR_Greens Campaign Office

Hi everyone! Want to see Mike Schreiner participate in the Leaders Debate tonight? Join the Waterloo Region Greens at the Campaign Office for a watching party!

Despite our best efforts, the unelected and unaccountable media consortium has continued with their decision to exclude the Greens from the televised Leaders Debates.

Even though we are silenced, we must stay strong. We will keep pushing to get our Green voices heard, in all the ways we can.

On Sunday, Mike Schreiner will ‘infiltrate the debate’ by hosting a viewing party and doing a live commentary of the televised Leaders Debate in his home riding of Guelph. The event will be livestreamed, so we hope you can all tune in to hear the real solutions Greens want to provide to the province.

Join us at the WR Greens campaign office, perhaps bring a snack to share, and we’ll watch the Facebook live stream.

When: Sunday, May 27, 6:00pm – 8:00pm
Where: WR Greens Campaign Office, 6 Duke Street East, Kitchener Map
Facebook Live: Mike Schreiner: I’ll be doing a live commentary of the (unfair) Leaders Debate.

Advance polls in Kitchener — Conestoga

Voting Day is Thursday, 7 June 2018, but if you’re busy or out-of-town you can vote now at one of the advance polls. Here are the locations as listed on the Elections Ontario website.

Kitchener — Conestoga Elections Ontario

Dates: Saturday, 26 May to Wednesday 30 May 2018
Time: 10:00am to 8:00pm

Breslau Community Centre

Location is accessible
100 Andover Drive Map
Breslau, N0B 1M0

Elmira Lion’s Club

Location may have an accessibility barrier
40 South Street West Map
Elmira, N3B 1K8

Forest Heights Community Centre

Location is accessible
1700 Queen’s Boulevard Map
Kitchener, N2N 3L6

Wilmot Recreation Complex

Location is accessible
1291 Nafziger Road Map
Baden, N3A 0C4

You can also vote at the Returning Office:

Kitchener—Conestoga Returning Office

Location is accessible
1187 Fischer Hallman Road Map
Kitchener, N2E 4H9
Phone number is (866) 850-8977
You can vote from Thursday, 10 May to Wednesday, 6 June 2018
Monday to Saturday: 10 AM – 8 PM
Sunday May 13, May 20, June 3: 12 PM – 5 PM
Sunday May 27: 10 AM – 8 PM

In-person voting at returning offices ends on June 6 at 6 P.M. ET